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Make-or-break holiday for Wii

November 9, 2007

Eidos’s Julien Merceron (on the other guy’s left, your right) — the latest mouthy dev guy to whip the Nintendo forums into a frenzy via an interview.

What’s your impression of the next-gen market as we head into 2008?

I think that this Christmas is going to be very interesting. It probably won’t help Sony dramatically, but it should be a good Christmas for Microsoft. And I think it will be a revelation for Nintendo.

Either third party developers and publishers will make money on the Wii platform, or they won’t – and if most of them don’t I think we’ll see a big drop in support for the Wii next year, which could have some consequences for Nintendo, and very positive ones for Microsoft and Sony.

From a certain perspective I would tend to think that the publisher performance on the Wii is going to be deterministic for the future of Microsoft and Sony. If they can make a lot of money on the Wii, then things will continue as they are now and the Wii will continue to be successful.

If they don’t make enough money then it means more games and a stronger market share for Microsoft and Sony, and the Wii dropping a bit.

So I think that the success of the Wii from the different publishers is going to be the determining point this Christmas.

That’s an interesting view that we’ve not necessarily heard anywhere else.

It’s true – if you can’t make money at Christmas on the best platform out there, then you have no chance all year long.

The guy has some points, but my PS3 optimism disagrees with him. I don’t see 3rd party Wii software going anywhere this Christmas, personally. It’s about as likely as me ever wearing a sweater/scarf combo like that. Sheezus.

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3 Comments leave one →
  1. November 11, 2007 12:25 am

    The scarf was the thing that had me sold!

    While it is true that this years 3rd Party games will be the determining factor for next years production. I don’t have the PS3 optimism like you Rollin, but I hope it’s holds true. I want that Hardware with the software to go with it.

    Crossing my fingers.

    frisby

  2. November 11, 2007 5:45 pm

    I have that optimism because i like the Sony hardware/software initiatives and this is a big holiday for them as well. If they fail to make a mark after all the price cuts and big games that’ll soon hit, i’ma start worrying about their security on the market. A sad event 😦 . I really wanna see them rocket to the top; i’m always rooting for the super dominant player (Federer) as long as they are likable, as well as the underdog (Nalbandian/Santoro). I kinda dig that semi-safe bet of having the winner of the last few gens come back from behind, working for it, and achieving it.

  3. November 12, 2007 6:37 pm

    I think it is a sure bet that MicroSoft will rise to the top next year… the software they released in the second half of this year, plus the word-of-mouth success of titles with online support will increase the sales of the 360 and its games. You see, unlike Nintendo’s online-capable games, MicroSoft’s tend to gain subscribers rather than lose them. Try finding someone to play any of Nintendo’s online games six months after their release (other than Mario Kart DS).

    As for Sony, it will rise next year, but not to the top. But the PS3 could certainly get head-to-head with Wii, which I think is heading for rough waters. Nintendo on the whole won’t do as well next year as it did this year, but it will still be all smooth sailing with revenue from DS software sales, not so much from Wii’s.

    That’s MY two cents!!

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